Writer: Sarwan Nasar
Designation: Abdul Rasheed “Assistant Director” in Divisional Directorate of Education (Schools) Zhob Division.
Email: rasheedmbahr@yahoo.com
Cell No: 0310 8000405
The world has been amazed by social movements taking place in the Muslim Middle East and North African (MMENA) countries since 2010, particularly a large presence of young men and women in street demonstrations. These social movements have in part been attributed to high unemployment rates and poverty among young people who constitute a large share of the population.
Bulge means an unusual and sudden increase in number or size of something. Globally, youth bulge refers to the demographic phenomenon where significant proportion of population consists of young people, specifically from age 15 to 29. According to the World Bank Blog, “It is often due to a stage of development where a country achieves success in reducing infant mortality but mothers still have a high fertility rate. The result is that a large share of the population is comprised of children and young adults, and today’s children are tomorrow’s young adults”. This trend can lead to both opportunities and challenges for societies. If the increase in number of youth individuals can be fully employed in productive activities, the level of average income per capita will increase and youth bulge will become a demographic dividend. However, if a large cohort of young people cannot find employment and earn satisfactory income, the youth bulge will become a demographic bomb, because a large mass of frustrated youth is likely to become a potential source of social and political instability. According to a renowned website of European Commission namely “Knowledge4Policy” (Updated till December 2020), There are 1.2 billion people in the world who are in the age of 15 – 24 years, which is 16 % of the global population and by 2050, the number is estimated to be 1.3 billion. The platform further reveals that India has almost 600 million people under 25 years old (45% of the country’s 1.28 billion population) and China has around 400 million people aged below 25 (almost 30% of the total population of 1.38 billion). A new study by Population Action International (PAI), a Washington-based private advocacy group, suggests a strong correlation between countries prone to civil conflicts and those with burgeoning youth populations. Social Scientists label its potential to destabilize countries in the developing world is gaining wider acceptance among the American foreign policy community. According to the said report, between 1970 and 1999, 80 percent of civil conflicts occurred in countries where 60 percent of the population or more were under the age of thirty. In eighteenth-century France, a spike in population boosted demand for food, which in turn drove up inflation, reduced the purchasing power of most citizens and sparked social unrest. Youth bulge societies exist mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia, the Middle East and the Pacific Islands. Sixty-two countries are considered “very young”, according to PAI, which means that two-thirds of their populations are under the age of thirty (and less than 6 percent are above the age of sixty). Countries that fit this profile include Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. According to The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for Pakistan 2021 Report, The total fertility rate in Pakistan has fallen considerably over the last 40 years, from over 6.5 children per woman in 1980 to just over 3.4 children per woman in 2020. The modest fertility declines in Pakistan over the last 40 years and the resulting changes in age structure have resulted in a continuing rapid increase in the young population. According to the said report, 11.115 million Pakistani workers went abroad for employment between 1971 and December 2019, mainly to the Middle East (96%). The mean age of emigrant workers at the time of migration was 26 years. The report further reveals that a challenge in converting the youth bulge into a demographic dividend is the low educational enrolment rates and literacy, especially for girls. In 1990, Pakistan and Bangladesh had similar levels of male secondary school enrollment, around 30%, but Bangladesh has subsequently seen a considerably better performance, reaching 67% in 2018 compared to 45% in Pakistan. The current gap for females is even wider. Today at least 20 million Pakistani children are out of school, which will result in the skill level of the workforce lagging behind other countries for the foreseeable future, with negative consequences for its competitiveness. In addition, the gap between male and female education levels means a lack of female empowerment both in the home and the workplace. The education system in Pakistan is not producing the skills and abilities required for a highly productive workforce. According to the estimates for Pakistan by the International Labor Organization (ILO), highlighted in World Development Indicators (WDI) data base of the World Bank, there is evidence of the peaking of the youth bulge in Pakistan. The share in population of youth, aged 15 to 24 years, was 19.2 percent in 1980. This share had increased to 19.4 percent by 2000. The share reached a peak in 2010 at 20.9 percent. According to the Pakistan Population Census of 2023, share of youth population, aged 15 to 24, is 18.5 percent of the total population. Which means there were 44.7 million youth in the country in 2023. The estimated youth labour force is reported in the Census at 21.3 million, implying a relatively high labour force participation rate of almost 48 percent. Within the youth labour force, the number of unemployed was 6.2 million. The unemployment rate was very high at over 29 percent. The total number of idle youth is the sum of the unemployed and those who are truly idle by neither being in the labour force nor in the education system. This adds up 15.6 million, equivalent to 35 percent of the youth population. As such, the estimates from the Population Census of 2023 are very close to the ILO estimates of 34 percent. The enrolment of youth in education is estimated at 14 million. This include 50 percent of the enrollment in matric and 100 percent at higher levels of education. Therefore, the number of youth who are neither in the labour force nor undergoing education is 9.4 million. In such an alarming situation, Pakistan’s federal and provincial governments direly need to make policies and implement it in true spirit for making the youth population play active role in the development of the country. In this regards, special attention needs to be given to quality education, provision of skills, employment opportunities and Creation of frameworks for youth civic participation and leadership by establishing youth councils or forums and including young representatives in policy and decision-making processes
